Saturday, February 21, 2009

Gold goes past US$1000


I watched the gold market last market till about 1.00am but that was it, the week caught up with me so I missed the time gold went through US$1000 again.
I expect a good day on Monday with gold shares the gains given up on Friday should be recovered.
How high gold goes in US$ in this leg is concerning, I have posted my wave count so I am preparing for some tighter stops next week, there is the possibility that gold hits resistance at the previous high and this in fact then completes the current fifth wave. There is strong possibility that this current wave five completes Wave 1 of 5 waves that take us past US$1500. If that is the case we should expect some pullback hence my tightening of stops. There is also a chance that the current wave 5 extends through the previous highs, I would think we would see some profit taking there though. Much depends next week on market deliberation with regard to the possible failure of even more American banks, its not all over with the Bank of America and Citigroup needing another injection of aid.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Quiet Friday Night

Well two trades still doing well with LGL closing today at $3.40 and NGF at 15cents, I am still holding despite the pull back today. I think it was expected with these stocks having run quite hard and gold not advancing overnight. I feel we will now see over US$1000 per oz gold before the end of the month, its already made a record high in $A exceeding $1500.
The only thing I had that was up today was DOM which is a small holding.
Some other holdings in NCM,IAU and SGX were all down but not what you would call worrying, normal market movement is the term I would use.
I have never seen so many spruikers on the price of gold, when everybody is starting to jump on the bandwagon you know it's going to go on a journey upward, the worry will be when you walk in the supermarket and the checkout chick can give you the price. It has still a long way to go though.
My foray into nickel shares did not occur, good thing as nickel dived below $10,000 a ton and PAN which I like is now substantially cheaper so I think nickel is now at a bottom and I might make the trade Monday.
Prediction POG over US$990 tonight.
This run is probably the best I have done in 12 months so hoping it goes for a while longer.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Xmas coming early

Well today has started out to be a great day its stopped raining at long last and the POG has flown to US$966 up $25 in 24 hours. All my gold trades are making ground as I type.
LGL up to $3.56 and NGF at 17 cents.
The All Ords is down to 3350 gold stocks are up though, at long last us "goldbugs" are going to make some money.
It does look like the trillions of dollars that the yanks are printing is going to devalue their dollar to benefit of gold as investors, funds and governments look for some safe haven.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Valentines Day

Well it's Valentine's Day and no love notes for me.
Anyway my focus are these current trades I am in and the search for more.
LGL reached a high of $3.48 yesterday and closed at $3.35 still continuing its upwards move, have a stop in place hopefully no volatility will take it out.
Will be reviewing stop daily.
Its very important to me to make some profits so if by chance gold pulls back then I will take a profit rather then see the trade go down and then have the hope it will recover and then left holding it for a recovery that might not happen for a while.
The NGF trade is also doing well and closed at 14.5 cents
Some other trades are doing well too.
The POG (price of gold) closed at US$941.60, down almost US$6 on the previous day but still trending up from the November lows. I still see the POG possibly taking out the highs of March last year and the possibility of reaching US$1200.

Have not moved on acquiring PAN closed at 81cents no hurry on this, need to read more on nickel fundamentals to make sure this is a worthwhile trade.
Well off to the shops before they close.
Got my super statement yesterday its down 16% over 6 months and 25% over 12 months I ask myself why have I managed a return on capital used in the market of 55% over the last months 6 months and the fund managers can't. They get paid big money and use other peoples monies and can't get it right, maybe they salaries should decrease by the amount their fund goes down.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009


Pretty pleased with today's results seeing the All Ords had a down day, NGF consolidating at 12 cents, hope this forms some support now for a run up. LGL made more ground up another two cents to close at $3.19. The US$ gold price has been trading between $890 and $900 for the past 24 hours any upward movement will see LGL clear $3.20 which is resistance at the moment, once it clears $3.20, the next stop is around $3.60.
The is a distinct possibility that this trade could be far more profitable and well exceed $3.60, lets see how it pans out.(click the above chart for a larger look, clearly trading up within a channel along with a familiar elliot wave pattern in place)
Watched the cricket tonight not a great game but we managed to beat those Kiwis again.
I am looking at putting some money into PAN, if and when commodities recover I do believe nickel will lead, nickel inventories on the LME seem to be stable and the nickel price is slowly moving up, a risky trade but PAN has not been this low for years its up 10% in almost a week so today's close at 82.5 cents could be a good opportunity will check the nickel price in the morning.

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Marc Faber is probably known by most of you so he needs no introduction, the man has had an uncanny of calling major economic events and investment strategies to protect your capital.
He is very bullish on gold currently, its interesting to hear his comments on the US stimulus package and the government intervention into various markets and the economy.
At the end of the interview there is his opinion on gold, there is no timing but he sees the possibly of a 4000 dow and US$4000 POG.
My trading is currently around gold companies I am not not dipping in and out like I used to I currently do not have the energy or motivation to do so, so I am taking a longer term strategy on gold companies and identifying the best opportunities.

Sunday, February 1, 2009

Four Day Week

Well this week went fast, the four day working week was great.
The week was distracting however for me as my buy of LGL shares was not making any headway.
The mine was closed due to issues with traditional land owners, however announcement Friday that all had agreed to sit around the table, combined with the jump in gold prices this saw the stock surge Friday and it closed at $3.13
My 41,300 shares were looking good as the purchase price averages $2.82.
I hold NGF too this was a real speculative buy they looked oversold and have a hedging agreement in place through a convertible note issued to Lehman Bros which they may be able to get out of and gain exposure to higher gold prices I bought 105,000 of these currently 9 cents, I cant recall why the odd 5,000. This was trading above 50cents a year ago but has been stuck rangebound between 8 and 10 cents for the last two months has some resistance at 9.7 cents. its seems there is always a big seller there as if someone wants to keep it below 10 cents.
Social life has been disastrous this week with a few beers on Tuesday and Wednesday, have been watching a bit of tennis during the nights too.
The rest of the week has seen me watching TV or on this computer.