Well the work I started on gold stocks has not been completed. I will have to knuckle down over the next few days. The past week was quite busy not that I was trading just got diverted into other things.
Of all the gold stocks I have looked at Integra (IGR),Dominion (DOM) and of late Oceana (OGC) which cropped up look to be the best performers against what I am requiring to make future trades but I am bringing to many factors in the equation, I will have to go back and reassess what I am trying to achieve.
Its back to the whiteboard tonight.
Hopefully gold doesn't run before I finish.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Last night was an absolute horror, the DOW lost 200 points and gold tumbled just over US$11.
My trade in IAU is probably a lesson.
When the most important market in the world, one that influences everything else has topped and appears to be heading down its time to bale and what did I do, I bought.
The next lesson always have a stop in place. I did not have a stop against my better judgement and a few minutes after the open IAU dropped to 32cents, during the day they worked their way back and leading into the last hour had clawed back to 34.5cents.
Happy as I was to a degree with this recovery I was shocked when I returned to my computer some hours later to find that 500,000 shares had gone through at the close auction at 32cents.
This trade is down $3k in a day or 15.8%, I still hold, maybe for not much longer.
The Bowen general meeting was totally disappointing with all resolutions failing to carry. In fact the meeting was farcical, I have never come across such incompetent directors who have no idea or concern of the interests about the shareholders whose company they run.
My trade in IAU is probably a lesson.
When the most important market in the world, one that influences everything else has topped and appears to be heading down its time to bale and what did I do, I bought.
The next lesson always have a stop in place. I did not have a stop against my better judgement and a few minutes after the open IAU dropped to 32cents, during the day they worked their way back and leading into the last hour had clawed back to 34.5cents.
Happy as I was to a degree with this recovery I was shocked when I returned to my computer some hours later to find that 500,000 shares had gone through at the close auction at 32cents.
This trade is down $3k in a day or 15.8%, I still hold, maybe for not much longer.
The Bowen general meeting was totally disappointing with all resolutions failing to carry. In fact the meeting was farcical, I have never come across such incompetent directors who have no idea or concern of the interests about the shareholders whose company they run.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Just took a trade again this morning in IAU at .38cents.
I had previously exited with a 40% gain and have now taken another 50,000 shares, looking for it to test 40cents.
Resistance last year, May 08 was 40 cents and it failed at this point and fell back to below 10 cents. This year the company is in a far better position with no debt, no hedging, its divested itself of dodgy south american high cost tenements, production at the Paulsen mine continues to be on track with possibly even further extension of mining life to come.
Its Tujuh Bukit project in East Java I feel is not reflected in the current share price, the full potential of this project is yet to be confirmed, we know its multi million ounces of gold but how big still needs to be confirmed.
My intention was to hang back and see how the POG developed but the more I delve into this company the more assured I am if it breaking through 40 cents and moving towards a dollar.
Lets see how we travel.
I had previously exited with a 40% gain and have now taken another 50,000 shares, looking for it to test 40cents.
Resistance last year, May 08 was 40 cents and it failed at this point and fell back to below 10 cents. This year the company is in a far better position with no debt, no hedging, its divested itself of dodgy south american high cost tenements, production at the Paulsen mine continues to be on track with possibly even further extension of mining life to come.
Its Tujuh Bukit project in East Java I feel is not reflected in the current share price, the full potential of this project is yet to be confirmed, we know its multi million ounces of gold but how big still needs to be confirmed.
My intention was to hang back and see how the POG developed but the more I delve into this company the more assured I am if it breaking through 40 cents and moving towards a dollar.
Lets see how we travel.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Well its a week I won't complain about, the IAU trade realised a 40% gain when I sold and DOM hit my stop for still a 5% profit.
Gold is still trading above the 50 day MA line and the last few days has seen some support at US$930. This time two years ago gold set of after falling off a high in April 2007 of US$691.40 to US$642.10 to break US$1000 in March 2008. If we see some consolidation at US$930 I might venture back in.
Buying LGL at $2.80's and DOM at $4.50 and then selling in $3.30's and $5.40's does appeal.
June 2007 was however certainly not a recessionary period and we saw some remarkable gains in the POG and they continued even after the stockmarket bull run came to an end.
There has been some data published which shows that gold does better in expansionary periods rather then recessionary periods. We may therefore be seeing the last time of gold under US$1000.
I am tying with 25 gold stocks to work out the stocks that consistently respond with the largest gains in share price value when the price of gold increases. I am looking over the past 13 months and periods where gold has had it recoveries after retracement. I have identified four periods. I am also splitting the stocks into different groups.(producers and explorers, hedged and unhedged.)
I am also identifying when news both positive and negative is influencing the price, so when this occurs I only look at the period upto the news point and then again from the start of the next recovery.
I hope this works to my advantage for the next recovery.
I still retain some shares in BWN (Bowen Energy)which I have held for a long while now. I am off to the emergency general meeting on Monday where we will attempt to remove the current directors from the board, I saw distinct value in this little explorer the board seem to share those thoughts but are intent in removing it away from the shareholders and into the hands of Indian steel moguls Bhushan at a knock down price.
Gold is still trading above the 50 day MA line and the last few days has seen some support at US$930. This time two years ago gold set of after falling off a high in April 2007 of US$691.40 to US$642.10 to break US$1000 in March 2008. If we see some consolidation at US$930 I might venture back in.
Buying LGL at $2.80's and DOM at $4.50 and then selling in $3.30's and $5.40's does appeal.
June 2007 was however certainly not a recessionary period and we saw some remarkable gains in the POG and they continued even after the stockmarket bull run came to an end.
There has been some data published which shows that gold does better in expansionary periods rather then recessionary periods. We may therefore be seeing the last time of gold under US$1000.
I am tying with 25 gold stocks to work out the stocks that consistently respond with the largest gains in share price value when the price of gold increases. I am looking over the past 13 months and periods where gold has had it recoveries after retracement. I have identified four periods. I am also splitting the stocks into different groups.(producers and explorers, hedged and unhedged.)
I am also identifying when news both positive and negative is influencing the price, so when this occurs I only look at the period upto the news point and then again from the start of the next recovery.
I hope this works to my advantage for the next recovery.
I still retain some shares in BWN (Bowen Energy)which I have held for a long while now. I am off to the emergency general meeting on Monday where we will attempt to remove the current directors from the board, I saw distinct value in this little explorer the board seem to share those thoughts but are intent in removing it away from the shareholders and into the hands of Indian steel moguls Bhushan at a knock down price.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Well gold is certainly bouncing around, nobody seems sure of anything at the moment, no doubt its on its way to surpass US$1000 plus but on the way it will provide some angst for all goldbugs. The US$ has always had some correlation with gold and the dollar down usually means gold up, the US dollar index has however strengthened after falling from a year long high in early March, this recovery may be short lived as it tests the 50day MA. In the meantime we might see some decline in the POG.
The US$ Index which had been trending up for approx 12 months has clearly broken down away from that trendline within the last couple of months. The 50 day MA is the test we may now need to wait for.
I exited LGL today just after the open and managed a 15cent profit, a 5% gain.
The IAU and DOM trades still remain with stops in place now somewhat tighter.
The US$ Index which had been trending up for approx 12 months has clearly broken down away from that trendline within the last couple of months. The 50 day MA is the test we may now need to wait for.
I exited LGL today just after the open and managed a 15cent profit, a 5% gain.
The IAU and DOM trades still remain with stops in place now somewhat tighter.
Sunday, June 7, 2009
It was shaping up to be a good week for gold and then came Friday and then overnight gold slumped to $954.60 much to my surprise when I woke up on Saturday morning. The challenge on US$1000 did not eventuate, if gold follows its previous seasonal paths it may well again fall to US$875's.
My thoughts were that this year would be different, that the runaway printing presses and gradual devaluation of the US$ against major currencies would push gold through US$1000. We have seen some swings in gold lately and this could well be another one but one should never discount seasonal patterns.
This chart on the gold eagle website illustrates gold falling away in June.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/goldcorner/seagold.html
LGL trade finished down 14cents on the previous week
IAU was up 1 cent
DOM was up 12 cents
ROL was up a 24.5 cents a massive 44%
Our markets don't open to Tuesday morning so we can see how our cousins travel overnight Monday but I think its time to go again and come back in September unless of course some geopolitical event comes into play.
Its quite possible we will have some bargins again with possibly a sub $2.50 LGL.
If there is no challenge of US$1000 within the next two weeks then gold will meander down to 875's and trade sidewards for the next few months.
My thoughts were that this year would be different, that the runaway printing presses and gradual devaluation of the US$ against major currencies would push gold through US$1000. We have seen some swings in gold lately and this could well be another one but one should never discount seasonal patterns.
This chart on the gold eagle website illustrates gold falling away in June.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/goldcorner/seagold.html
LGL trade finished down 14cents on the previous week
IAU was up 1 cent
DOM was up 12 cents
ROL was up a 24.5 cents a massive 44%
Our markets don't open to Tuesday morning so we can see how our cousins travel overnight Monday but I think its time to go again and come back in September unless of course some geopolitical event comes into play.
Its quite possible we will have some bargins again with possibly a sub $2.50 LGL.
If there is no challenge of US$1000 within the next two weeks then gold will meander down to 875's and trade sidewards for the next few months.
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