Saturday, March 21, 2009

Uncertain Times

My AQP trade was a loss, hit my stop, it closed yesterday at $3.24 almost another 5% below my stop. I can't say I can see any great looking trades out there maybe I am not looking hard enough.
I am holding just LGL again got in at the open on Wednesday at $3.02 closed yesterday at $3.38, held it over the weekend as POG looks like it might be entering a major leg up especially with the Americans announcing they are going to crank up the printing presses to avoid deflation.
This introduction of green backs will obviously be very inflationary in due course and that's the intention of the US Fed, what they may not have counted on is the Chinese dumping their holdings of US dollars, to what volume we don't know. I can't see the Chinese observing their reserves of foreign currency devalue so we could see a drip feed of dollars and the dollar gradually devaluing or we may see a dramatic drop as the Chinese dump. I think the former will be the likely scenario.
The Chinese have already warned the US of their concerns and it seems the US have chosen to ignore those concerns. Whatever happens will see gold spectacularly rise through US$1000 towards US$1200 and quite possibly beyond.
Gold has traditionally been a inflation hedge and the US will be heading towards a inflationary period. The reasons to hold gold are becoming compelling and the gold mining companies will benefit substantially particularly the unhedged producers.
I will continue to trade the gold miners as opportunities occur.
I am now looking forward to a $5.00 LGL.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

Trade of the month

I thought I would put up this chart as I have a small trade in this precious metal company now.

My rationale was based on this company trending up since the end of October, its bounced of the bottom line in the channel four times since then. The trade is hoping to see $5.00. maybe more if it breaks out upwards out of the channel.
The Williams R showing in the chart looked to be very oversold indicating a trade too.
AQP closed at $3.95 Friday I have a stop at $3.40.
Its hard work making any money in this market so if I can profit 30% in this trade it will definitely be my trade of the month.

Summer is over

Well summer is now over from a meteorological point of view, its not quite time for hibernation as I believe the astrologers wait for the autumn equinox.
The fruits of summer are still to be reaped with my positions in the markets still present.
I am near selling as the gains have been good, my stops are still holding, just.
My updated gold chart indicates that wave 1 has completed and that we now testing support indicated by the solid red line, if this support does not hold there is further support at the 50 day moving average line which previously held in mid January. There is always the danger of a further retracement of even more with a protracted extended wave down to approximately $845 (50% fib line not shown on chart) or below before we see further gains mid year.

On the up side is the suggested lines of support hold and the recent high of $1007 gets taken out.
I am looking forward to a wonderful night of cricket as our team restates itself as number one in the Test world. A wonderful performance from Mitchell Johnson has put us in an unbeatable position.