Sunday, April 12, 2009

Happy Easter

I decided to bale out of virtually everything as things do point to a short term retracement in the POG. This time of year has seen some rises in the past of gold towards the beginning of the northern summer, this year I fear IMF announcement of its selling 403 tons of gold and the selling of scrap gold in Asia will dispel any rise in the POG for time being.
Till there is a realisation wholesale that the IMF sales will proceed in an orderly fashion and quite possibly to central banks of countries with large reserves of US dollars who no longer want to hold US dollars we will see some short term decline.
The US$'s from this sale will then it seems be dispersed into those third world countries that the IMF decide. Look like the G20 or was it the US stall gold from going up and prevent some dumping of their precious dollar in this exchange. The whole amount is not huge but it will have the desired effect.
The northern summer is traditionally the weakest time for the POG, so as gold has shown in its 21st century bull run that its quite seasonal, the next leg up again could be at the conclusion of the northern summer. The US printing presses that are hurrying out the dollar will also aid gold's run but inflation will not reveal its face for a time yet. So its still bide our time.

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